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Eleven Three Twenty
September 29, 2020
There’s an old axiom in Presidential campaigns: “A candidate can’t win the election during a debate, but they certainly can lose it during one.” (See Richard Nixon in 1960 or Gerald Ford in 1976.)
Tonight’s first debate between President Trump and former Vice President Biden should be no exception. Barring a major faux pas or complete meltdown by one of the two men — which, I’ll grant you is entirely possible, given these particular candidates — the trajectory of the race probably won’t change dramatically.
That’s especially true this year as opposed to four years ago, because polling shows a much smaller percentage of still undecided voters heading into the first debate than at the same point in 2016. I’ve seen undecided voter numbers as low as 3% and no higher than 9%. Four years ago, almost 20% of likely voters claimed they were still undecided heading into the first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
That means tonight’s 90-minute debate is critical for President Trump. He needs to shake up a race that has been shockingly stable for months. Polling over that time consistently has shown that Joe Biden is the clear front runner — nationally and in a number of key swing states.
Having said that, a Donald Trump victory certainly is not out of the question, thanks to the…
